Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 106.329461 121.718520 139.074375 160.200274 185.356842 214.523113 251.142231
2025-12-28 89.357011 109.774456 134.898861 168.480627 212.787696 270.098805 351.257266
2026-01-04 78.477620 101.520976 131.772069 175.204114 237.330796 325.189540 462.966914
2026-01-11 70.493386 95.004410 128.895668 180.494411 259.493254 380.169399 587.480584
2026-01-18 63.670531 88.738172 124.919281 182.798180 276.751720 430.374017 717.092118
2026-01-25 57.711525 82.740958 120.208912 182.762400 289.664523 475.470062 849.829443
2026-02-01 51.973822 76.287040 113.810643 178.768657 294.811299 507.617602 966.946224
2026-02-08 47.114888 70.597839 107.830762 174.408410 298.221923 536.792334 1086.297841
2026-02-15 43.075351 65.757774 102.611532 170.497250 301.540765 566.094477 1214.802392
2026-02-22 42.027237 65.638405 105.174988 180.749619 333.679027 661.501639 1534.485453
2026-03-01 39.732535 63.185304 103.410336 182.628126 349.222369 724.595997 1797.095257
2026-03-08 37.796163 61.149042 102.133768 185.209574 366.631266 796.214880 2114.895096
2026-03-15 35.514900 58.381772 99.381579 184.772502 378.062669 858.244053 2440.759464
2026-03-22 34.866424 58.471898 101.951971 195.688101 417.917298 1005.887044 3138.684448
2026-03-29 33.920627 57.917824 103.211193 203.991487 453.416973 1153.940741 3944.950659
2026-04-05 32.829303 56.981643 103.599601 210.410122 485.654897 1304.162726 4881.790934
2026-04-12 31.459460 55.386773 102.480281 213.197210 508.960569 1435.263679 5850.001188
2026-04-19 29.943093 53.377583 100.298419 213.156277 524.510772 1546.726337 6829.365482
2026-04-26 28.139217 50.659643 96.369496 208.344080 525.418987 1607.464576 7593.060715
2026-05-03 26.453097 48.057395 92.461528 203.094862 524.084905 1660.249088 8372.078976
2026-05-10 24.952765 45.726833 88.942513 198.390746 523.553222 1716.665587 9246.984074
2026-05-17 24.862609 46.285033 91.839608 210.730811 579.829689 2029.405613 12437.907520
2026-05-24 24.029438 45.225586 90.994516 212.994978 603.786267 2216.082276 14972.646438